Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9d2a…d5d0 sports 312 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,039 (-4%) realized −$5,039 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%210W / 102L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$456per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$810est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$254
7 days−$1,647
14 days−$2,452
30 days−$770
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$3,612
other 4% −$548
world 0% −$375
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -29.8% -36.5% 50% 50% -44.0%
≤30d 60 -10.8% -19.3% 60% 58% -12.2%
≤90d 214 -1.5% -10.9% 68% 61% -10.1%
all 312 -3.7% -12.8% 67% 60% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 60% -12.5%
10% -21.2% 48% -20.9%
15% -28.8% 28% -28.5%
20% -35.8% 15% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$541) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$341 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,039
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses210 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$810
Open positions0
Markets (closed)312 / 312
History coverage120d
Avg bet$456
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 312 Trades
no open positions (74 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 25 $420 +$115 +28%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $367 +$53 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $281 +$86 +30%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Maya Joint vs Emiliana Arango Jun 22 $443 −$436 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Jun 22 $2,786 −$1,428 -51%
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Muchova Jun 18 $37 −$37 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $227 −$225 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $226 +$110 +49%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $245 +$128 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $381 −$375 -98%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $383 −$379 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $289 +$94 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $143 −$141 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $556 −$550 -99%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $399 −$156 -39%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $116 −$115 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $563 +$245 +43%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 03 $382 +$182 +48%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $99 −$98 -99%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $52 +$51 +98%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 02 $234 −$128 -54%
Foggia: Laura Mair vs Yiming Dang Jun 02 $187 −$7 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $320 +$120 +38%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart Jun 02 $208 +$118 +57%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $149 +$59 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $303 +$114 +38%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $576 +$287 +50%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $191 −$189 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $40 −$40 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Fonseca May 31 $31 −$31 -99%
ITF Lakewood: Kaylan Bigun vs Amit Vales May 31 $101 −$30 -30%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Rublev May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $183 +$20 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $122 +$61 +50%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $79 +$44 +55%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $304 −$59 -19%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 May 31 $104 +$28 +26%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $86 +$24 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $62 +$24 +40%
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Justin Boulais May 30 $63 −$2 -3%
Roland Garros WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic May 29 $287 +$31 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $371 +$59 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Karolina Muchova May 29 $620 +$97 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Solana Sierra vs Sorana Cirstea May 29 $481 +$139 +29%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $802 +$181 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $630 +$172 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 28 $1,934 +$1,053 +54%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $794 −$788 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $685 +$111 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 100¢ $535 50m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 78¢ $420 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Jelena Ostapenko 100¢ $420 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Jelena Ostapenko 87¢ $367 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $367 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $281 15h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Maya Joint vs Emiliana Arango BUY Maya Joint 52¢ $443 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova SELL Hannah Klugman 28¢ $442 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova BUY Hannah Klugman 56¢ $915 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova SELL Tereza Valentova 44¢ $916 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 88¢ $1,871 3d
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Muchova BUY Muchova 57¢ $37 6d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 76¢ $227 7d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 67¢ $226 7d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 100¢ $372 7d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 65¢ $245 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $381 9d
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 72¢ $383 9d
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 100¢ $383 9d
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 75¢ $289 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $143 11d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 53¢ $16 11d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 62¢ $556 16d
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 60¢ $158 16d
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson SELL Mia Pohankova 46¢ $131 16d
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson SELL Mia Pohankova 45¢ $27 16d
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson BUY Mia Pohankova 68¢ $241 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 69¢ $116 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Flavio Cobolli 100¢ $808 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 69¢ $563 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 641 history records