Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9D 0x9d2a…9ee3 sports 832 markets active 1d ago coverage 107d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,636 (+2%) realized +$8,247 · open −$611
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%395W / 428L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$507est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$813now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$8,364
other 20% +$7,873
world 0% −$98
finance 0% −$130
crypto 0% +$31
weather 0% −$28
tech 0% +$11
politics 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 42% -18.1%
≤30d 95 -7.4% -16.2% 49% 49% -5.7%
≤90d 666 -3.4% -12.6% 47% 46% -3.2%
all 823 -2.5% -11.8% 48% 46% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 46% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 43% -14.0%
15% -27.9% 38% -22.3%
20% -35.0% 32% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$182 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$813
Realized+$8,247
Unrealized−$611
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses395 / 428
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$507
Open positions9
Markets (closed)823 / 832
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$391
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 823 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 47¢ $387 $379 −$8 (-2%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $643 $369 −$274 (-43%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $184 $23 −$161 (-87%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 54¢ 13¢ $54 $13 −$41 (-76%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 51¢ 10¢ $54 $11 −$43 (-80%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $25 $5 −$20 (-80%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 32¢ 6¢ $25 $5 −$20 (-81%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 19¢ 3¢ $27 $4 −$23 (-84%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $23 +$27 +119%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $29 +$31 +104%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$20 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$25 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $19 +$21 +107%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +65%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $22 +$16 +73%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $47 +$41 +86%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $70 +$30 +44%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $38 +$32 +83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $191 +$201 +105%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $105 +$86 +82%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 29 $20 +$21 +105%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP - Map 1 Winner May 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 29 $44 +$32 +74%
1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $29 +$27 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $41 +$25 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner May 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $9 +$19 +213%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $12 +$7 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner May 24 $13 +$25 +182%
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) May 24 $23 +$25 +105%
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) May 24 $23 +$25 +105%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) May 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner May 23 $39 +$19 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 33h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $23 33h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $14 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 90¢ $60 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $10 45h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 46h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $19 46h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $12 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $30 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $39 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $6 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 2d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 47¢ $14 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $19 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $13 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $19 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 50¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $42 4d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL South Africa 95¢ $1 4d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL South Africa 95¢ $37 4d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY South Africa 55¢ $16 4d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY South Africa 55¢ $6 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Vitality 54¢ $27 5d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) SELL Spurs 98¢ $71 5d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) SELL Spurs 98¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $812.91 · official $812.91 (match) · 3500 history records