Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9D 0x9d2c…4d03 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$7
other 28% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 5% $0
weather 5% $0
politics 4% +$1
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -13.4%
all 23 +1.2% -8.4% 52% 4% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -10.8%
10% -17.2% 0% -19.3%
15% -25.2% 0% -27.1%
20% -32.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage449d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $45 −$8 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $24 +$1 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $8 +$1 +10%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 21 $8 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 17 $6 +$1 +19%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $12 $0 -1%
Will Alexandre Sarr win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Mar 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 22h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 24d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 24d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $26 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $26 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $17 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $8 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $24 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $10 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $12 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $7 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $1 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 27d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1 337d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 355d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 357d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 393d
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres SELL No 99¢ $8 393d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 394d
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 394d
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 395d
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? BUY No 92¢ $6 397d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 398d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records