Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9D 0x9d2d…6988 crypto 1765 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (379 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$12 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate39%465W / 741L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day379.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$66
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$91
other 0% +$8
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (379 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1170 -29.3% -36.0% 39% 1% -9.4%
≤30d 1206 -27.7% -34.6% 39% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 1206 -27.7% -34.6% 39% 1% -9.2%
all 1206 -27.7% -34.6% 39% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover379.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.6% 1% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -40.8% 1% -17.9%
15% -46.5% 1% -25.8%
20% -51.8% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses465 / 741
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1206 / 1765
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day379.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.80 (match) · 3500 history records