Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9D 0x9d2e…040f other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$808 (-23%) realized −$817 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$12
other 36% −$312
politics 15% −$505
sports 2% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.0% -17.6% 50% 42% -13.2%
≤30d 12 -9.0% -17.6% 50% 42% -13.2%
≤90d 12 -9.0% -17.6% 50% 42% -13.2%
all 20 -18.8% -26.5% 50% 25% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 25% -31.8%
10% -33.6% 25% -38.4%
15% -40.0% 20% -44.3%
20% -45.9% 10% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$99 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$817
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage598d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 65¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 53¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $53 +$16 +30%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $158 +$62 +39%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $18 +$22 +124%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $138 +$12 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $96 +$44 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
South Korean President impeached in 2024? Dec 07 $60 −$50 -84%
South Korean People’s Power leader arrested by Friday? Dec 05 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? Nov 26 $321 −$269 -84%
Solana above $210 on November 22? Nov 20 $338 −$17 -5%
Coinbase top 10 app on Friday? Nov 19 $35 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Nov 19 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? Nov 14 $1,007 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $460 −$455 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $71 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 12h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 30h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 30h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 31h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $107 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 40h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $138 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $96 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 6d
South Korean President impeached in 2024? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 564d
South Korean President impeached in 2024? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 564d
South Korean President impeached in 2024? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 566d
South Korean President impeached in 2024? SELL No 10¢ $8 566d
South Korean President impeached in 2024? BUY No 65¢ $52 566d
South Korean People’s Power leader arrested by Friday? SELL No 100¢ $52 566d
South Korean People’s Power leader arrested by Friday? BUY No 99¢ $52 568d
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? SELL Yes 7¢ $52 575d
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? BUY Yes 44¢ $321 582d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.56 · official $174.56 (match) · 50 history records