Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d2e…498d
crypto · 554 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$260 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$258 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$77
Realized−$258
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses285 / 260
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions9
Markets (closed)545 / 554
History coverage152d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 9 History 545 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days−$106
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Yes 67¢ 70¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 28? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
FC Barcelona vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 5? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 5? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 28? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 08 $4 +$6 +144%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$7 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$7 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$9 +857%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$7 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$5 +164%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 5? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $46 +$14 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 +$6 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 03 $14 −$13 -96%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $24 +$46 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $180 −$76 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $30 +$3 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $57 −$28 -48%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $41 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $21 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $7 −$6 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $30 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $5 $0 +5%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $15 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $20 +$34 +172%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 27? May 27 $21 +$18 +84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $13 +$17 +135%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 27? May 27 $17 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 28? May 27 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 28? May 27 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 27? May 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? May 27 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $1 +$4 +406%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $15 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26? May 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 46% −$74
crypto 20% −$76
weather 19% −$69
other 10% −$51
world 3% +$17
politics 1% −$1
tech 0% −$7
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? SELL Yes 88¢ $8 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +183.0% +156.0% 100% 100% +153.3%
≤30d 249 -25.8% -32.9% 42% 31% -18.9%
≤90d 474 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 39% -15.2%
all 545 -7.4% -16.2% 52% 39% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 39% -14.9%
10% -24.2% 30% -23.0%
15% -31.6% 25% -30.4%
20% -38.3% 19% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.87 · official $76.88 (match) · 1452 history records