Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9D 0x9d30…a9fa crypto 907 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,748 (-12%) realized −$1,748 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%330W / 685L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day115.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,346
7 days−$3,794
14 days−$3,138
30 days−$2,959
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,233
other 1% −$103
sports 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 436 -58.7% -62.7% 18% 17% -58.9%
≤30d 1015 -30.4% -37.0% 33% 30% -29.1%
≤90d 1015 -30.4% -37.0% 33% 30% -29.1%
all 1015 -30.4% -37.0% 33% 30% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.0% 30% -29.1%
10% ← realistic here -43.0% 28% -35.9%
15% -48.5% 23% -42.1%
20% -53.6% 21% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,748
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses330 / 685
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1015 / 907
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day115.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1015 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$16 +320%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $67 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $51 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $38 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $34 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $59 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $70 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.40 · official $1.40 (match) · 3500 history records