Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d30…5209 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$15
other 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -22.8% -30.2% 46% 42% -25.6%
≤30d 26 -22.8% -30.2% 46% 42% -25.6%
≤90d 26 -22.8% -30.2% 46% 42% -25.6%
all 26 -22.8% -30.2% 46% 42% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 42% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 38% -32.7%
15% -43.0% 19% -39.2%
20% -48.6% 12% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$5 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 3¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 13¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records