Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9d30…fad8 sports 284 markets active 0h ago coverage 468d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6,869 (+6%) realized +$7,535 · open −$666
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%129W / 152L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$897est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$8,729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 468d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$2,855
other 15% +$107
crypto 9% −$213
world 0% −$77
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +3.2% -6.6% 59% 37% +2.8%
≤30d 69 +1.7% -8.0% 55% 36% +4.7%
≤90d 202 -30.2% -36.9% 31% 24% -14.0%
all 281 -10.3% -18.9% 46% 38% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 38% -6.5%
10% -26.6% 32% -15.5%
15% -33.7% 25% -23.6%
20% -40.2% 19% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$170 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$8,729
Realized+$7,535
Unrealized−$666
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses129 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$897
Open positions3
Markets (closed)281 / 284
History coverage468d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $4,000 $4,426 +$426 (+11%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 93¢ 92¢ $4,396 $4,302 −$94 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1,000 $2 −$998 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 9¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 2¢ 0¢ $701 $0 −$701 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers 76ers 1¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 5¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 13¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spurs 17¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Magic Pistons 36¢ 0¢ $245 $0 −$245 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Baltimore Orioles 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Magic Pistons 9¢ 0¢ $486 $0 −$486 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Timberwolves 21¢ 0¢ $485 $0 −$485 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 40¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $199 $0 −$199 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Trail Blazers 15¢ 0¢ $342 $0 −$342 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,126 +$4,202 +373%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1,001 +$20 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,732 −$1,068 -39%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,305 +$206 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,203 +$100 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $6,514 +$195 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,818 −$124 -3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,124 −$1,000 -47%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,245 +$22 +1%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $322 +$109 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $512 −$200 -39%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,007 +$292 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $932 −$372 -40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$73 -71%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $98 +$916 +939%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $503 +$132 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,213 +$110 +9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,006 +$232 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,206 +$225 +19%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1,003 +$111 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $435 +$215 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $202 +$110 +55%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $125 +$37 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,063 +$35 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,103 +$119 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,003 +$103 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5,106 +$206 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,383 +$1,539 +46%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $453 +$102 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4,909 +$299 +6%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $91 −$88 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$82 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$5 -16%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,017 +$1,077 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 93¢ $1,203 20m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 94¢ $1,002 30m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 94¢ $1,002 50m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 93¢ $1,198 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,006 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,005 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,021 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $1,020 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 98¢ $1,001 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,126 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $75 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 88¢ $100 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 56¢ $1,459 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $1,008 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 78¢ $1,007 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 13¢ $130 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $102 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $202 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $303 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,303 8h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 86¢ $1,305 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,203 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $6,605 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 96¢ $3,704 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $3,708 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 96¢ $1,402 9h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $1,350 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 97¢ $3,603 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 92¢ $1,203 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,729.46 · official $8,729.46 (match) · 800 history records