Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d31…8468 crypto 194 markets active 13h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$349 (-13%) realized −$349 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%107W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$91
14 days−$66
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$138
weather 24% −$215
other 12% −$7
sports 10% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -30.1% -36.8% 30% 30% -31.6%
≤30d 169 -15.1% -23.2% 55% 43% -24.0%
≤90d 193 -15.1% -23.2% 55% 45% -23.3%
all 193 -15.1% -23.2% 55% 45% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 45% -23.3%
10% -30.6% 35% -30.7%
15% -37.3% 26% -37.4%
20% -43.4% 15% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses107 / 86
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)193 / 194
History coverage57d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $39 −$39 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +72%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $11 −$8 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -95%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +37%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -74%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$9 -46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$22 +431%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$9 -47%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -75%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 +$26 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$9 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 03 $20 +$11 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30? Jun 01 $20 +$14 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $100 −$99 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +38%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +24%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $39 19h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 31h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers $3 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $10 38h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $1 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $25 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 38h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $11 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $31 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 61¢ $20 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.30 · official $19.30 (match) · 385 history records