Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d32…7829 other 11 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-47%) realized −$115 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$112
sports 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -32.3% -38.7% 30% 30% -68.1%
≤30d 10 -32.3% -38.7% 30% 30% -68.1%
≤90d 10 -32.3% -38.7% 30% 30% -68.1%
all 10 -32.3% -38.7% 30% 30% -68.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 30% -68.1%
10% -44.6% 30% -71.2%
15% -49.9% 30% -73.9%
20% -54.8% 30% -76.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$21 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.73 · official $54.73 (match) · 17 history records