Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9d36…9c54 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,268 (+35%) realized +$1,280 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 43L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days+$540
14 days+$366
30 days+$1,200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% +$530
other 33% +$647
sports 28% +$85
world 3% −$78
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -4.7% -13.8% 31% 31% +49.4%
≤30d 62 -8.8% -17.5% 34% 34% +27.0%
≤90d 62 -8.8% -17.5% 34% 34% +27.0%
all 64 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 33% +25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 33% +25.3%
10% -25.3% 31% +13.3%
15% -32.5% 31% +2.4%
20% -39.1% 31% -7.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +38% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$29 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized+$1,280
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 43
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions13
Markets (closed)64 / 78
History coverage221d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 17¢ 16¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 24¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Under 27¢ 26¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$22 +214%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$28 +140%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $51 −$22 -44%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $21 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $113 +$575 +510%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $41 +$39 +97%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $51 +$130 +255%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $112 +$107 +96%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 −$13 -66%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$8 -41%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21 −$2 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$77 -76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$118 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$118 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$35 +134%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$46 -89%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 +$492 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 30 $52 +$48 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 17¢ $41 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $31 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $31 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $31 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 58¢ $29 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 24h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 0¢ $0 35h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 84¢ $32 35h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 47h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 34¢ $20 47h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 26¢ $10 47h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 22¢ $10 47h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 47h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 47h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 11¢ $29 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.99 · official $387.00 (match) · 132 history records