Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9D 0x9d38…973d world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$268 (+14%) realized +$348 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$121
14 days+$211
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$125
world 30% +$58
crypto 23% +$26
politics 7% −$32
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +34.7% +21.9% 67% 67% +13.5%
≤30d 13 +77.5% +60.6% 62% 62% +26.3%
≤90d 37 +33.3% +20.6% 51% 46% +7.2%
all 37 +33.3% +20.6% 51% 46% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 46% +7.2%
10% +9.1% 43% -3.0%
15% -1.5% 38% -12.4%
20% -11.1% 30% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$21 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized+$348
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)37 / 54
History coverage70d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 67¢ 54¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 41¢ 72¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+76%)
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Yes 23¢ 29¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+27%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $33 $26 −$8 (-23%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 38¢ 16¢ $38 $16 −$22 (-59%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 60¢ 18¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-70%)
Paris Hilton pregnant in 2026? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $18 $6 −$12 (-64%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? No 30¢ 8¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-74%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 9¢ 1¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-84%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$40 -40%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $20 +$23 +117%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $64 +$24 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$9 +70%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$21 -59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $31 +$33 +109%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close Jun 05 $10 +$90 +865%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? May 26 $47 +$14 +30%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 17 $55 −$38 -69%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $9 −$7 -73%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 11 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 11-17? May 11 $19 −$18 -95%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 09 $15 −$14 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $10 +$90 +900%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 07 $19 +$17 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 07 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 6? May 06 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $15 +$11 +74%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $26 +$34 +131%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 04 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $41 +$7 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $37 +$23 +61%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 30 $118 +$76 +64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $199 +$47 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $84 30m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 33¢ $61 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 82¢ $43 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 34h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 67¢ $101 36h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $64 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 41¢ $20 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 19d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $25 19d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 19d
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close BUY Yes 10¢ $10 19d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 22d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? SELL 70k 63¢ $61 23d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 32d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY No 9¢ $5 33d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY No 9¢ $1 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.43 · official $368.79 (match) · 162 history records