Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d39…4f00 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 721d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-2%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%45W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$4
politics 24% −$60
crypto 12% +$2
sports 6% $0
world 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 48 -0.9% -10.4% 94% 4% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -11.1%
10% -18.9% 2% -19.6%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$34 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

721d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses45 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage721d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 17 $67 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$140 on the final day of trading of the Apr 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 18? Mar 19 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 Mar 02 $109 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Mar 02 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $89 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 05 $80 $0 +0%
U19 World Cup: Australia Under-19s vs England Under-19s Feb 05 $140 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 08 $40 $0 +0%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 24 $220 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 08 $30 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 16 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $26 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? May 02 $115 +$1 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? Apr 05 $12 $0 +2%
Will StepFun have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? Feb 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $64 $0 +1%
Is John McAfee alive? Jan 05 $20 $0 +0%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 05 $28 $0 +1%
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? Jan 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 15-22? Nov 26 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 8-15? Nov 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 8-15? Nov 12 $9 +$3 +33%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $84 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before election day? Nov 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? Oct 25 $84 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100-124 times? Oct 20 $51 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris drop out in August? Sep 23 $50 $0 +0%
Trump posts 50-99 times on X? Aug 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 9 times this week? Aug 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? Aug 18 $50 $0 +0%
Japan wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 21? Aug 04 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? Aug 04 $23 $0 +2%
Nasrallah remains leader of Hezbollah through July? Aug 04 $26 $0 +2%
Will Biden drop out on July 20? Jul 21 $71 +$2 +3%
Will Biden drop out on July 19? Jul 20 $125 +$1 +0%
Biden drops out by July 19? Jul 19 $26 −$2 -9%
Linea airdrop by June 30? Jul 09 $80 $0 +0%
MetaMask airdrop by June 30? Jul 09 $117 $0 +0%
Phantom airdrop by June 30? Jul 09 $120 $0 +0%
Blast airdrop by June 30? Jun 27 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 41d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$140 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $53 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $16 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $46 91d
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $112 112d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 BUY No 100¢ $109 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $89 132d
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $80 134d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $40 169d
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $50 200d
Will no leader be out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $220 239d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 99¢ $30 285d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? BUY No 90¢ $17 320d
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? BUY No 100¢ $67 369d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? BUY Up 99¢ $26 406d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 99¢ $115 431d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? BUY No 98¢ $12 458d
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $23 478d
Will StepFun have the top AI model on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 500d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY No 100¢ $10 500d
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY No 100¢ $24 500d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $26 510d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $38 520d
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? BUY No 100¢ $10 536d
Is John McAfee alive? BUY No 100¢ $20 536d
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? BUY No 100¢ $29 546d
Tether Insolvent in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $28 562d
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 15-22? BUY No 100¢ $88 572d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.57 · official $53.57 (match) · 101 history records