Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9D 0x9d3a…d724 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,651 (+46%) realized +$1,671 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$1,310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$1,188
sports 43% +$654
world 4% −$11
crypto 3% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+70.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +88.4% +70.5% 42% 42% +65.5%
≤30d 36 +88.4% +70.5% 42% 42% +65.5%
≤90d 36 +88.4% +70.5% 42% 42% +65.5%
all 36 +88.4% +70.5% 42% 42% +65.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +70.5% 42% +65.5%
10% +54.2% 42% +49.7%
15% +39.3% 42% +35.2%
20% +25.6% 42% +22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +87% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +214% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$29 · ×5.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.17 per $1 lost it wins $4.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,310
Realized+$1,671
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions18
Markets (closed)36 / 54
History coverage4d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $260 $258 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 40¢ 42¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 19¢ 20¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $243 +$148 +61%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $202 +$126 +62%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals Jun 21 $31 +$344 +1115%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $51 +$282 +549%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $97 +$130 +134%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $162 +$334 +206%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $21 +$498 +2421%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 20 $31 −$7 -24%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 −$8 -24%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 20 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$157 +307%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $69 +$55 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 +$64 +105%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $96 +$68 +70%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$82 +134%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $152 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $263 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 19¢ $51 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $204 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 61¢ $202 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $243 1h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $375 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $228 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $97 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $496 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $162 15h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $31 15h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $41 15h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 15h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 15h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,310.05 · official $1,310.05 (match) · 80 history records