Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d3c…d817 other 33 markets active 8h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized +$6 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$32
other 11% −$12
tech 2% −$30
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.9% -21.2% 67% 39% -7.8%
≤30d 18 -12.9% -21.2% 67% 39% -7.8%
≤90d 18 -12.9% -21.2% 67% 39% -7.8%
all 23 -22.9% -30.2% 61% 30% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 30% -9.5%
10% -36.9% 22% -18.1%
15% -43.0% 17% -26.0%
20% -48.6% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)23 / 33
History coverage269d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $852 +$45 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $30 +$3 +10%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $401 +$20 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 29 $19 +$1 +6%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Sep 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $475 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $451 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 92¢ $422 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $402 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $50 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $10 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $5 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 11h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 89¢ $20 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $5 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $13 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 16h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $4 16h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $30 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $200 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 95¢ $401 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 5d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No $3 6d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No $0 6d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No $0 6d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.69 · official $119.69 (match) · 64 history records