Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9D 0x9d3d…0064 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+6%) realized +$19 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$25
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$20
crypto 36% +$47
sports 23% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 30% +44.7%
≤90d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 30% +44.7%
all 10 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 30% +44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 30% +44.7%
10% -17.7% 30% +30.9%
15% -25.7% 30% +18.2%
20% -33.0% 30% +6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$10 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 18
History coverage19d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $31 +$48 +156%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +104%
Pavel Šulc: 1+ goals Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$76 +249%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Japan win on 2026 BUY 6¢ $5 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY 11¢ $10 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 7d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran BUY 2¢ $4 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 6¢ $4 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 10¢ $5 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 38¢ $31 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 10d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 10d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 48¢ $30 11d
Pavel Šulc: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $4 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 13d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 3¢ $7 13d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 17d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 17d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.43 · official $52.43 (match) · 23 history records