Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:42:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d3e…2c6b
weather · 794 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$931 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,227 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$1,227
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses224 / 556
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)780 / 794
History coverage62d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 14 History 780 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$161
14 days−$479
30 days−$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+77%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? No 42¢ 11¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -25%
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 +$2 +11%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 +$3 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 −$3 -85%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $19 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$7 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $7 −$4 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$6 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $7 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 +$10 +290%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $15 +$24 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$25 +269%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 11? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$5 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 09 $3 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 11? Jun 09 $9 −$5 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$4 -54%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 +$7 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 82% −$1,133
crypto 16% −$133
other 1% +$34
sports 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $7 16m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 19m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 42¢ $4 41m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 2h
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -40.0% -45.7% 22% 17% -38.3%
≤30d 366 -23.2% -30.5% 26% 23% -21.5%
≤90d 780 -20.4% -28.0% 29% 26% -25.5%
all 780 -20.4% -28.0% 29% 26% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 26% -25.5%
10% ← realistic here -34.9% 24% -32.6%
15% -41.2% 22% -39.1%
20% -46.9% 19% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.86 · official $39.86 (match) · 3001 history records