Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d3e…986c sports 386 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,283 (-5%) realized −$2,242 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%189W / 196L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$677est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$217
14 days−$350
30 days−$688
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,451
other 5% −$1,310
crypto 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +11.7% +1.1% 51% 51% -15.9%
≤30d 201 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 49% -13.3%
≤90d 385 -2.2% -11.5% 49% 48% -13.9%
all 385 -2.2% -11.5% 49% 48% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 48% -13.9%
10% -20.0% 45% -22.1%
15% -27.7% 42% -29.6%
20% -34.8% 37% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$107 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,242
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses189 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$677
Open positions1
Markets (closed)385 / 386
History coverage59d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tagger Lilli Tagger 57¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $21 +$35 +172%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $24 +$18 +73%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $10 +$15 +152%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $13 +$6 +46%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz Jun 20 $16 −$14 -85%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova Jun 20 $16 −$16 -99%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Aishi Das Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $27 +$19 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$38 -74%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
ITF Samobor: Jozef Kovalik vs Dimitar Kuzmanov Jun 19 $37 +$25 +67%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $54 +$20 +38%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $13 +$40 +307%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $15 −$1 -8%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $3 +$2 +76%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $4 +$11 +276%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $1 +$2 +179%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $2 +$2 +86%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $85 −$84 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $47 +$38 +81%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 19 $31 +$16 +50%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $20 +$11 +54%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $2 +$9 +510%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $6 +$4 +76%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $24 −$17 -68%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $13 +$11 +89%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $142 −$132 -93%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $89 +$54 +60%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $52 +$36 +70%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Colin Sinclair Jun 18 $34 +$19 +55%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 +$15 +83%
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Sakura Hosogi Jun 18 $18 −$18 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $27 +$10 +38%
ITF Blois: Jenny Lim vs Sofya Lansere Jun 17 $17 +$10 +60%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $98 −$97 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $23 +$74 +316%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $9 +$15 +170%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $47 −$38 -80%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $30 +$17 +55%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$26 -86%
ITF Sapporo: Tori Kinard vs Yuzuha Negishi Jun 17 $29 −$29 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $14 +$9 +67%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $20 +$16 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $16 +$18 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Lilli Tagger 57¢ $42 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $42 1h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 36¢ $21 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 57¢ $24 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $26 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 68¢ $13 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 39¢ $10 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 56¢ $2 7h
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz SELL Berfu Cengiz 15¢ $2 7h
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz BUY Berfu Cengiz 54¢ $16 10h
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova BUY Alevtina Ibragimova 49¢ $1 10h
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova BUY Alevtina Ibragimova 49¢ $2 10h
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova BUY Alevtina Ibragimova 49¢ $5 10h
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova BUY Alevtina Ibragimova 49¢ $9 10h
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Aishi Das BUY Gaeul Jang 21¢ $26 10h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $12 12h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $27 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 13h
ITF Samobor: Jozef Kovalik vs Dimitar Kuzmanov BUY Dimitar Kuzmanov 59¢ $37 24h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $37 24h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 72¢ $54 25h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide SELL Gustavo Heide 100¢ $54 25h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Gustavo Heide 24¢ $13 27h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen SELL Zhizhen Zhang 44¢ $13 27h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Susan Bandecchi 50¢ $5 27h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $5 27h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Zhizhen Zhang 24¢ $15 27h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku SELL Yeon-Woo Ku 100¢ $15 27h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 866 history records