Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d3e…c49e weather 1272 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 128d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,257 (+15%) realized +$3,237 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%543W / 996L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 128d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$831
other 2% −$231
sports 0% −$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 330 -95.5% -95.9% 3% 3% -83.7%
≤30d 436 -68.4% -71.4% 23% 21% -27.7%
≤90d 758 -50.7% -55.4% 25% 23% -27.6%
all 1539 -24.0% -31.2% 35% 32% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 32% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 26% -24.2%
15% -43.8% 21% -31.5%
20% -49.3% 15% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$652
Realized+$3,237
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses543 / 996
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions39
Markets (closed)1539 / 1272
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 1539 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? No 76¢ 100¢ $53 $70 +$17 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? No 76¢ 100¢ $53 $70 +$17 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? No 73¢ 76¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? No 73¢ 74¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? No 76¢ 70¢ $51 $47 −$4 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? No 80¢ 81¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? No 62¢ 60¢ $41 $39 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 72¢ 60¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? No 65¢ 100¢ $22 $34 +$12 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? No 64¢ 68¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? No 69¢ 100¢ $23 $33 +$10 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? No 71¢ 98¢ $23 $32 +$9 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? No 62¢ 63¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? No 85¢ 87¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 96¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+23%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 92¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+45%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? No 77¢ 78¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? No 71¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 53¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 42¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+54%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 38¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? No 78¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 461 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on De Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on January 28? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 76°F or higher on February 10 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 3? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 2 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 1°C on January 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on January 2? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on December 20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on No Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on January 7? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on Decem Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on December Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Oc Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 4? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on January 31 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on January Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on December 18? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on January 8 Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 60°F or higher on December Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on Oct Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on December 29? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or higher on January 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on De Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on January Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or higher on January 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 2 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 42°F or higher on January 2 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 68°F or higher on January 7 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on Ja Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 13? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Saudi security agreement by November 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26-27°F on February 1 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on January 2 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C on January 27? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on January Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on February Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on January 12? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 58°F or higher on December Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 7? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on Oc Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 77°F or below on January 8? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on January 1 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 20-21°F on January Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C on January 26? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on January Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $8 16m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $22 25m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $4 29m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $6 34m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $6 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $3 36m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $4 43m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $3 52m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $7 53m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $6 53m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $12 57m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $9 5h
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $651.73 · official $648.45 (match) · 3500 history records