Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9d44…e114 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$138 (+5%) realized +$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate86%19W / 3L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$379
other 4% $0
sports 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +8.5% -1.8% 86% 50% +2.9%
≤30d 22 +8.5% -1.8% 86% 50% +2.9%
≤90d 22 +8.5% -1.8% 86% 50% +2.9%
all 22 +8.5% -1.8% 86% 50% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 50% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 36% -6.9%
15% -19.8% 14% -15.9%
20% -27.7% 0% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$4 · ×4.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×30.89 per $1 lost it wins $30.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses19 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $301 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $357 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $302 +$32 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $301 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 28 $203 +$63 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $196 +$64 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $55 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$5 -33%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $50 +$14 +27%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $301 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $53 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $304 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $302 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $301 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $203 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $196 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.18 · official $56.03 · 60 history records