Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d46…26d8 sports 1254 markets active 17h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 143d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-1%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate72%903W / 349L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$21
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$99
other 14% −$98
crypto 1% −$14
world 0% −$14
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.0% -12.3% 71% 42% -13.6%
≤30d 37 -6.9% -15.7% 68% 38% -16.1%
≤90d 714 +0.0% -9.5% 81% 28% -9.8%
all 1252 -1.9% -11.2% 72% 35% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 35% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 22% -19.2%
15% -27.5% 13% -27.0%
20% -34.6% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses903 / 349
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1252 / 1254
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 −$19 -79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$15 -72%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$4 +28%
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Dublin (Doubles): Barry/Gannon vs Bianchi/Perez Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
ITF Tulsa: Pavle Marinkov vs Christian Langmo Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $22 +$2 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$21 +173%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 +$2 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$5 -35%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 −$8 -36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $19 +$3 +13%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 +$3 +25%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $6 +$1 +17%
Mannarino vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $29 +$2 +8%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $18 +$7 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $12 +$3 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $19 −$6 -34%
Set 1 Winner: McCabe vs Bergs Jun 10 $14 $0 +3%
Set 1 Winner: Virtanen vs Majchrzak Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $8 −$4 -51%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $15 +$3 +20%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 May 02 $25 −$4 -16%
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 May 02 $10 +$1 +6%
Brentford FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $13 +$2 +14%
Brentford FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $4 −$1 -24%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $6 +$4 +82%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $27 −$17 -64%
Derby County FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 4.5 May 02 $26 +$2 +6%
Set 1 Winner: Faria vs Blanch May 02 $25 $0 +1%
Auckland FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $25 $0 +1%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 01 $23 +$2 +9%
Blockx vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 01 $23 $0 +1%
Coulibaly vs. Stewart: Match O/U 23.5 May 01 $23 $0 +1%
Werner vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 23.5 May 01 $22 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY 52¢ $10 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 23¢ $1 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 26¢ $5 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $20 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $19 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $15 21h
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow SELL Gornes/Walkow 100¢ $15 21h
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow BUY Gornes/Walkow 99¢ $15 21h
Dublin (Doubles): Barry/Gannon vs Bianchi/Perez SELL Barry/Gannon 100¢ $10 22h
Dublin (Doubles): Barry/Gannon vs Bianchi/Perez BUY Barry/Gannon 99¢ $10 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 41h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $5 41h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $24 42h
ITF Tulsa: Pavle Marinkov vs Christian Langmo SELL Christian Langmo 100¢ $24 42h
ITF Tulsa: Pavle Marinkov vs Christian Langmo BUY Christian Langmo 99¢ $24 42h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $24 42h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $22 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 84¢ $22 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $22 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 92¢ $34 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 90¢ $4 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 64¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records