Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9D 0x9d47…64ee sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,582 (+37%) realized +$1,593 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$967now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$1,937
other 9% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +21.3% +9.7% 40% 40% +32.9%
≤30d 15 +21.3% +9.7% 40% 40% +32.9%
≤90d 15 +21.3% +9.7% 40% 40% +32.9%
all 15 +21.3% +9.7% 40% 40% +32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 40% +32.9%
10% -0.8% 40% +20.2%
15% -10.3% 40% +8.6%
20% -19.1% 40% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$504 vs −$164 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$967
Realized+$1,593
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin Jan Choinski 34¢ 34¢ $204 $201 −$3 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Sinja Kraus 32¢ 32¢ $192 $195 +$3 (+2%)
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Solana Sierra 34¢ 34¢ $197 $194 −$3 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon Lautaro Midon 23¢ 22¢ $196 $191 −$4 (-2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic Luka Pavlovic 27¢ 26¢ $189 $186 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $270 +$230 +85%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $193 +$507 +262%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $208 +$392 +188%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur Jun 21 $193 −$189 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango Jun 21 $207 −$203 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $752 +$722 +96%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $200 +$525 +262%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $196 −$196 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 17 $200 −$195 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 17 $211 −$206 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $199 +$647 +325%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 32¢ $3 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 32¢ $24 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 32¢ $2 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 32¢ $6 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 32¢ $3 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 32¢ $4 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 32¢ $6 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 32¢ $147 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Solana Sierra 34¢ $201 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Jan Choinski 34¢ $208 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic BUY Luka Pavlovic 27¢ $193 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon BUY Lautaro Midon 23¢ $200 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $1 19h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $234 19h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $35 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur BUY Petra Marcinko 27¢ $193 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango BUY Sofia Johnson 33¢ $207 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 27¢ $193 25h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 34¢ $208 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $619 39h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 39h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 39h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 39h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 39h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 39h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 28¢ $4 4d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 28¢ $0 4d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 28¢ $47 4d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 28¢ $0 4d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 28¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $967.04 · official $967.04 (match) · 52 history records