Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9d47…6bfa other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$23
politics 32% −$13
sports 7% +$43
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 116 +1.5% -8.2% 7% 5% -9.5%
all 122 +0.2% -9.3% 8% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 7% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×11.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage112d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $312 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $268 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 06 $199 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $856 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $310 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $325 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $291 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $327 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 01 $308 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 30 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $265 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $234 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $260 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $299 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $274 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $340 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $276 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $292 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $250 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $248 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $332 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $267 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $258 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $341 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $351 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $271 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $291 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $578 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $332 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $337 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $258 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $306 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 16 $282 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $337 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $329 23d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $329 24d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $312 26d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $312 35d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $53 35d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $268 36d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $268 43d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $199 43d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $199 43d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $294 43d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $294 44d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $252 44d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $252 45d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $284 45d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $284 46d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $321 46d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $53 46d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $322 46d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $310 47d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $310 47d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $325 47d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $325 47d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $291 47d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $291 48d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $327 48d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $327 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records