Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d4c…1905 politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$1
other 29% $0
sports 12% $0
tech 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage112d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $86 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $87 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $87 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $88 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $88 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $88 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 12 $89 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $89 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $87 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $87 13h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $87 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $86 18d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $87 19d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $87 23d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $87 25d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $87 37d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $87 38d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $87 44d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $87 45d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $87 48d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $87 49d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $88 69d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 69d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 73d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 74d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $88 76d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $88 76d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $88 79d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $88 79d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $88 91d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $88 91d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $88 97d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $1 98d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $8 98d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $7 98d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $7 98d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $10 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records