Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d56…046f sports 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$490 (-5%) realized −$529 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%39W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$20
14 days−$47
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$411
sports 33% −$193
other 14% +$299
crypto 4% −$210
finance 3% +$9
politics 2% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -37.4% -43.4% 0% 0% -16.6%
≤30d 11 -31.9% -38.4% 27% 27% -15.8%
≤90d 66 -23.3% -30.6% 29% 20% -16.6%
all 105 -8.4% -17.1% 37% 30% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 30% -14.6%
10% -25.0% 27% -22.8%
15% -32.3% 23% -30.2%
20% -38.9% 22% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$529
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses39 / 66
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions5
Markets (closed)105 / 110
History coverage192d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohamed Salah play in Serie A next? Yes 10¢ 38¢ $15 $59 +$44 (+283%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $38 +$11 (+40%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $10 −$8 (-45%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $6 −$3 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 24 $215 −$14 -6%
Will Enzo Fernandez join Real Madrid? Jun 18 $33 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $241 −$35 -15%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $38 +$8 +21%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 07 $228 +$26 +11%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $121 −$21 -17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $294 −$220 -75%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 30 $201 +$199 +99%
Will Andoni Iraola be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 29 $14 −$12 -82%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 22 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF? May 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 06 $20 +$120 +597%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 05 $42 −$6 -14%
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025 Apr 26 $115 −$1 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Scor Apr 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 19 $10 +$17 +165%
Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Apr 16 $20 −$13 -64%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to Score Apr 16 $11 −$10 -99%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $12 +$13 +107%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 08 $83 −$2 -3%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 08 $548 −$14 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 08 $10 $0 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 07 $10 −$5 -46%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $112 +$8 +7%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $10 −$8 -75%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 07 $555 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $214 −$199 -93%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $97 +$23 +24%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Jamaica win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $34 −$3 -9%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $10 +$3 +26%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $1,381 +$23 +2%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $196 +$5 +2%
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5) Mar 29 $281 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Mar 29 $395 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 29 $789 −$6 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 28 $442 −$8 -2%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 28 $442 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $201 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 5d
Will Enzo Fernandez join Real Madrid? SELL Yes 57¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $4 6d
Will Enzo Fernandez join Real Madrid? BUY Yes 59¢ $33 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $18 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $4 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $14 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $28 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $46 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 12d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 12d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $113 12d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? SELL No $2 16d
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? SELL Yes $0 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 20¢ $10 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 18¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 55¢ $80 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 16d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? SELL No $11 17d
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY Yes $5 18d
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY Yes $10 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $28 19d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY No $5 21d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY No $1 21d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY No $0 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.93 · official $118.16 (match) · 623 history records