Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:04:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d5a…6db5 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 443d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1
other 23% −$2
politics 6% −$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 15 -2.4% -11.7% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -2.4% -11.7% 27% 0% -9.6%
all 30 -5.1% -14.1% 37% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage443d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 74¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $32 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $52 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 -15%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $5 $0 -5%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $2 $0 -9%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $25 −$2 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 19? May 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11? Apr 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $20 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $19 $0 -1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 03 $24 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 71¢ $42 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $32 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $5 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $38 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $38 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $38 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.29 · official $43.95 (match) · 97 history records