Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:54:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d5c…46c3 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$362 (-13%) realized −$164 · open −$198
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days+$125
14 days+$125
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$48
world 32% −$260
politics 6% −$105
economics 4% −$15
crypto 4% −$1
sports 3% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +154.1% +129.9% 60% 60% +52.5%
≤30d 5 +154.1% +129.9% 60% 60% +52.5%
≤90d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 35% -26.5%
all 17 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 35% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 35% -26.5%
10% -18.5% 29% -33.6%
15% -26.4% 24% -40.0%
20% -33.6% 18% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late +61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$40 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$1,618
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions35
Markets (closed)17 / 52
History coverage63d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $150 $137 −$13 (-9%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 65¢ 72¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 98¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+53%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $110 $59 −$50 (-46%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $120 $57 −$63 (-52%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 73¢ 86¢ $41 $49 +$8 (+18%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $60 $47 −$13 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $110 $25 −$85 (-78%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 20 $101 +$43 +42%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? May 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 02 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 02 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 02 $100 +$82 +82%
Will JD Vance say "Iran" on the Will Cain Show? Apr 29 $14 −$14 -99%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Apr 29 $52 −$50 -96%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $80 +$20 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $118 −$118 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Weed rescheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $48 5h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 20h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 23h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 75¢ $101 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,617.96 · official $1,617.99 (match) · 126 history records