Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d5f…9410 crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-2%) realized −$87 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%50W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$110
sports 14% +$17
other 1% −$12
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -12.1% -20.5% 54% 43% -5.6%
≤30d 57 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 37% -3.2%
≤90d 103 -1.9% -11.2% 41% 35% -5.0%
all 119 -1.5% -10.9% 42% 36% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 36% -11.7%
10% -19.4% 32% -20.1%
15% -27.2% 31% -27.8%
20% -34.3% 27% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$24 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses50 / 69
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage102d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $79 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$6 +18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$30 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $63 +$66 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$27 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$15 -63%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$41 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 18 $111 −$111 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $51 −$39 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 22 $14 +$11 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 22 $28 +$62 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 22 $15 +$34 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 22 $16 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 22 $11 +$24 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 22 $13 +$13 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 22 $53 +$48 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 22 $23 −$16 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 22 $16 +$13 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $24 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $40 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $30 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $39 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.44 · official $4.44 (match) · 640 history records