Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d61…eb8e sports 926 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,851 (-7%) realized −$1,805 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%396W / 529L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$308est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days−$307
14 days−$678
30 days−$690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,086
other 1% +$160
crypto 0% −$23
politics 0% −$29
world 0% −$4
culture 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -16.4% -24.4% 38% 38% -25.9%
≤30d 215 -10.3% -18.8% 45% 44% -19.2%
≤90d 721 -24.1% -31.3% 37% 36% -25.2%
all 925 -8.3% -17.0% 43% 42% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 42% -16.2%
10% -25.0% 40% -24.2%
15% -32.2% 37% -31.6%
20% -38.9% 30% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,805
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses396 / 529
Est. fees paid−$308
Open positions1
Markets (closed)925 / 926
History coverage159d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 925 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 47¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 129 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $249 −$15 -6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $134 +$66 +49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 +$26 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $49 +$27 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$16 +81%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $25 −$15 -60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$12 -60%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $24 $0 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$17 +58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 +$4 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$11 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$53 -53%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $61 −$32 -52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$6 -61%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $56 +$36 +64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$7 -62%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $271 −$75 -28%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $52 +$45 +87%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $35 +$61 +174%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 +$14 +56%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $28 +$17 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $28 −$2 -6%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $115 −$114 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$5 -21%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 −$20 -67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $23 +$9 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$10 +68%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$4 -22%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $22 −$2 -11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $43 −$17 -41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $32 −$31 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $98 −$49 -49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $27 +$10 +36%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$6 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$7 +63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $12 +$8 +70%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$14 -71%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $41 −$20 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $20 35m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 88¢ $80 38m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 88¢ $8 38m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 60¢ $12 46m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 67¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 63¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 63¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 94¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 94¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 94¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 60¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 20¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 40¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 42¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 44¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 50¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 60¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $60 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $11 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 63¢ $32 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 3368 history records