Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9D 0x9d61…abb3 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103 (-7%) realized −$106 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$107
14 days+$107
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$9
other 10% −$33
sports 9% +$13
world 4% −$60
weather 1% +$6
economics 2% −$20
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +25.4% +13.5% 53% 51% -0.3%
≤30d 43 +25.4% +13.5% 53% 51% -0.3%
≤90d 50 +7.9% -2.4% 46% 44% -16.6%
all 50 +7.9% -2.4% 46% 44% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 44% -16.6%
10% -11.8% 44% -24.6%
15% -20.3% 42% -31.9%
20% -28.1% 38% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage38d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$26 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$15 +57%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$40 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$3 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $64 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$56 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$18 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $130 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$51 +961%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China? May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.08 · official $123.08 (match) · 108 history records