Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:50:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9D 0x9d67…1fa5 sports 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,459 (-16%) realized −$6,397 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%39W / 63L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$372per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$288est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3,400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,080
7 days−$932
14 days+$434
30 days−$666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$6,320
other 33% +$1,091
world 2% −$149
crypto 1% +$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -19.6% -27.2% 41% 41% -17.6%
≤30d 72 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 40% -12.3%
≤90d 73 -1.7% -11.0% 40% 40% -13.9%
all 102 -7.1% -15.9% 38% 38% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 38% -23.0%
10% -24.0% 37% -30.4%
15% -31.3% 34% -37.1%
20% -38.1% 32% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$380 vs −$316 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$3,400
Realized−$6,397
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses39 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$288
Open positions5
Markets (closed)102 / 112
History coverage473d
Avg bet$372
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2,806 $2,741 −$65 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $238 $234 −$4 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $188 $183 −$5 (-2%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $200 $153 −$47 (-24%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $30 $88 +$58 (+195%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $90 −$88 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $304 −$300 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 +$56 +28%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $153 +$205 +134%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $225 +$457 +203%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$73 +72%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $334 +$255 +76%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $335 +$299 +89%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $599 +$803 +134%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $783 −$770 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $304 +$196 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $68 −$66 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $304 +$232 +76%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $305 −$301 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $539 +$491 +91%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $304 +$196 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$213 +70%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 +$421 +206%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $305 −$301 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 +$251 +83%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $455 +$253 +56%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $225 +$201 +89%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 +$1,020 +1116%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $338 −$335 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $407 +$545 +134%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $113 +$245 +216%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 +$21 +20%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $531 +$1,306 +246%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $355 −$350 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 +$251 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $39 51m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $203 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $90 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $304 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $305 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 93¢ $213 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 26h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 98¢ $39 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $90 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $97 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $136 27h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $102 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $153 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 28h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $101 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $633 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $634 29h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $493 32h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $238 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $335 32h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $334 32h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,030 38h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 52¢ $406 38h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 82¢ $389 41h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $305 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $320 47h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $293 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $314 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,399.51 · official $3,665.76 · 225 history records