Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9d6a…18c3 crypto 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,241 (-11%) realized −$4,241 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%67W / 74L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$3,453
other 4% +$599
sports 4% −$495
finance 3% −$1,157
world 1% −$61
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 104 -3.1% -12.4% 52% 46% -13.1%
all 141 -9.0% -17.7% 48% 41% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 41% -18.2%
10% -25.6% 38% -26.1%
15% -32.8% 37% -33.2%
20% -39.4% 33% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$237 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$4,241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses67 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage102d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 30 $126 −$122 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 30 $66 +$61 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 30 $36 +$30 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 30 $923 −$893 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 30 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 30 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 29 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 29 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 29 $416 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 29 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 29 $105 −$99 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 29 $208 −$193 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 29 $516 +$365 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 29 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 29 $207 +$169 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 29 $106 +$225 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 29 $205 +$147 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 29 $104 −$97 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 29 $208 +$281 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 29 $106 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 29 $519 +$586 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 29 $207 −$190 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 29 $206 −$175 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 29 $517 +$450 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 29 $207 +$172 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 29 $264 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 29 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 29 $5 +$10 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 31 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 26 $224 −$129 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 25 $221 −$218 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 25 $109 +$103 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 25 $516 −$398 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 25 $1,500 −$1,484 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 25 $929 +$87 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 25 $298 −$296 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 25 $200 −$160 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 25 $332 +$298 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 25 $223 +$209 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 25 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 25 $249 −$226 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 25 $150 −$137 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 24 $64 +$60 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 24 $100 −$85 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 24 $186 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 24 $93 +$55 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 5¢ $134 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $124 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $66 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $36 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $361 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $561 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $204 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $80 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $26 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $105 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $210 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $23 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $6 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $16 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $310 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $331 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.73 · official $34.73 (match) · 363 history records