Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d6b…aaa3 sports 702 markets active 3h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$315 (-5%) realized −$314 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%303W / 393L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$67
14 days−$30
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$327
sports 41% −$94
crypto 3% −$4
politics 2% +$10
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% −$6
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -34.4% -40.6% 32% 26% -18.9%
≤30d 154 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 37% -13.3%
≤90d 696 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 40% -15.8%
all 696 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 40% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 40% -15.8%
10% -20.4% 37% -23.8%
15% -28.1% 35% -31.2%
20% -35.1% 30% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$314
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses303 / 393
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)696 / 702
History coverage89d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 696 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? No $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 179 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina Jun 17 $5 +$19 +380%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$19 -16%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $16 −$7 -44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +220%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $303 +$2 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -46%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 +$17 +128%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -41%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 +$8 +97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +47%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $58 +$3 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will BUY 18¢ $5 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY No $1 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $3 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 15¢ $3 30h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY No $1 35h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No $1 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina BUY 20¢ $5 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 69¢ $39 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 73¢ $42 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $100 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 25¢ $4 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 35¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 15¢ $8 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 18¢ $6 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 82¢ $19 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND E BUY $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.97 · official $6.97 · 1976 history records