Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9d6c…39a9 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$71 (+24%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$13
sports 21% +$58
other 9% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +34.7% +21.9% 50% 50% +10.4%
≤30d 22 +34.7% +21.9% 50% 50% +10.4%
≤90d 22 +34.7% +21.9% 50% 50% +10.4%
all 22 +34.7% +21.9% 50% 50% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.9% 50% +10.4%
10% ← realistic here +10.2% 41% -0.2%
15% -0.4% 41% -9.8%
20% -10.2% 41% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +89% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$10 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$18 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$15 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$45 +845%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +159%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 +$27 +107%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $7 +$15 +213%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $12 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.81 · official $19.61 (match) · 52 history records