Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d6d…6b36 other 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+0%) realized +$49 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%83W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$53
14 days−$126
30 days+$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$41
sports 12% −$87
crypto 1% +$35
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.0% -14.9% 56% 44% -2.2%
≤30d 38 -7.5% -16.3% 45% 42% +17.3%
≤90d 155 -6.0% -15.0% 47% 42% -8.9%
all 174 -7.2% -16.1% 48% 42% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 42% -8.8%
10% -24.1% 39% -17.5%
15% -31.4% 37% -25.5%
20% -38.1% 33% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$31 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses83 / 91
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)174 / 176
History coverage110d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-21? Yes 34¢ 27¢ $34 $27 −$7 (-21%)
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-18? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $56 +$61 +109%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 −$32 -89%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $302 +$8 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$33 +48%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $69 +$62 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$20 +86%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -51%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $15 +$15 +100%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 +$22 +110%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $15 +$22 +147%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $9 +$14 +155%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 +$41 +203%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-05-31? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $10 +$17 +162%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $44 −$43 -98%
Will América FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $381 +$450 +118%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 +$48 +94%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $61 +$35 +57%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $20 +$37 +180%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $65 +$30 +47%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $81 +$18 +23%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $35 −$24 -68%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $17 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $56 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $204 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $106 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $69 5d
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $63 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $69 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $23 7d
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 7d
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 7d
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 7d
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $22 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 9d
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $10 10d
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 11d
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 11d
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 48¢ $10 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $76 11d
Will América FC win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 61¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.50 · official $53.50 (match) · 363 history records