Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9D 0x9d6e…8b2d sports 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+1%) realized +$79 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%55W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$3
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$78
other 27% +$100
world 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -9.9% -18.5% 46% 46% -9.8%
≤30d 45 -4.1% -13.2% 49% 49% -4.7%
≤90d 111 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -9.6%
all 111 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 50% -9.6%
10% -21.8% 50% -18.2%
15% -29.4% 50% -26.1%
20% -36.3% 50% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$34 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses55 / 56
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions5
Markets (closed)111 / 116
History coverage60d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 50¢ 45¢ $38 $34 −$4 (-10%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 65¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $31 $25 −$6 (-20%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Yes 38¢ 26¢ $24 $16 −$8 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $35 +$29 +84%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $50 +$64 +126%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$35 +69%
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $45 +$44 +99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $49 +$46 +92%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 +$18 +74%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $25 +$28 +113%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$16 +78%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $39 +$27 +68%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $49 +$40 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $64 +$52 +81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $67 −$3 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $26 +$27 +104%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $13 +$14 +104%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$25 +108%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$25 +100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $32 +$26 +82%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 +$28 +85%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 +$32 +82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$24 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $33 +$26 +78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $33 +$35 +108%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$22 +113%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $92 +$77 +84%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $25 33m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $24 35m
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $39 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $39 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $64 23h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $114 23h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $50 33h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $35 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 41h
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $50 45h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $39 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $89 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $45 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $49 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $46 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $25 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $20 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $22 4d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $39 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $49 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $42 6d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $116 6d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $64 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 62¢ $64 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $67 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.75 · official $141.81 (match) · 252 history records