Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d70…af49 other 32 markets active 1d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-6%) realized −$22 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$84
14 days−$60
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$40
sports 9% +$30
crypto 3% −$15
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -42.7% -48.1% 23% 23% -47.1%
≤30d 26 -22.7% -30.1% 31% 31% -16.7%
≤90d 26 -22.7% -30.1% 31% 31% -16.7%
all 26 -22.7% -30.1% 31% 31% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 31% -16.7%
10% -36.7% 31% -24.7%
15% -42.9% 31% -32.0%
20% -48.5% 27% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$12 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)26 / 32
History coverage20d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$17 +41%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$17 +164%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$25 +241%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 +$17 +164%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $26 +$52 +203%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 28? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $10 +$18 +171%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $43 +$30 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 43h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $41 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 5d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $35 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 7d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 7d
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 7d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes $4 7d
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 8d
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes $3 8d
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes $3 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 8d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 8d
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 11d
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 12d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 14d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 17d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.95 · official $80.96 (match) · 81 history records