Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d73…ca2b world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$1
other 23% −$15
politics 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.7% -12.9% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 18% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 18% 6% -9.7%
all 40 -1.3% -10.7% 32% 5% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 5% -11.2%
10% -19.2% 2% -19.7%
15% -27.0% 2% -27.5%
20% -34.2% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage398d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $2 $0 -15%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $37 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $82 −$1 -1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 24 $4 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $4 +$4 +119%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 03 $6 $0 +4%
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 31 $23 −$19 -81%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $114K on May 30? May 28 $23 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? May 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $4 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 24 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $41 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $41 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $8 46h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 47h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $8 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $37 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $37 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $14 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $26 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $40 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $41 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 129 history records