Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d73…216b
world · 378 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$77,713 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$36,656 · open −$4,638
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$188,197
Realized+$36,656
Unrealized−$4,638
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses129 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions275
Markets (closed)179 / 378
History coverage20d
Avg bet$1,239
Trades / day160.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 275 History 179 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,622
7 days−$9,754
14 days+$23,265
30 days+$36,656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 84¢ $13,097 $13,727 +$630 (+5%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $11,407 $11,974 +$567 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $8,350 $8,795 +$444 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $7,618 $8,694 +$1,076 (+14%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 94¢ 98¢ $8,178 $8,543 +$365 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 89¢ 93¢ $6,140 $6,423 +$283 (+5%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 71¢ 81¢ $4,425 $5,084 +$659 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 78¢ $5,161 $4,886 −$275 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $3,919 $4,863 +$944 (+24%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $4,819 $4,788 −$31 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 38¢ 56¢ $2,986 $4,428 +$1,442 (+48%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $3,372 $4,089 +$717 (+21%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,627 $3,685 +$58 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 88¢ 82¢ $3,820 $3,565 −$255 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 91¢ 77¢ $4,208 $3,539 −$668 (-16%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 92¢ 94¢ $3,094 $3,129 +$36 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 89¢ 98¢ $2,764 $3,046 +$282 (+10%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 81¢ 84¢ $2,507 $2,631 +$124 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 50¢ $4,067 $2,558 −$1,509 (-37%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 80¢ $2,132 $2,500 +$369 (+17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 94¢ 98¢ $2,350 $2,457 +$107 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 87¢ 96¢ $2,165 $2,404 +$239 (+11%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $2,315 $2,353 +$39 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 76¢ 94¢ $1,714 $2,097 +$384 (+22%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $2,326 $1,947 −$379 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $5,917 −$180 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1,365 +$52 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $98 +$102 +104%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $959 −$959 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1,672 −$732 -44%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $271 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $151 +$7 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $94 +$6 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $89 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $567 +$33 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $93 +$7 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $397 +$3 +1%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 12 $44 +$4 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $66 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $846 +$36 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $140 +$352 +251%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $620 +$50 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $60 −$22 -37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $380 −$12 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 12 $2,106 −$779 -37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $718 +$236 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 12 $91 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2,101 −$20 -1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $66 +$34 +52%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $14 +$3 +22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $466 +$194 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1,212 −$1,212 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $3,240 −$3,240 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $3,656 −$3,034 -83%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $149 +$71 +48%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 9? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 12 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 12 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 12 $4 +$11 +253%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $188 +$12 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $1,680 +$120 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,583 +$13 +1%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 11 $952 +$60 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 11 $826 +$21 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $25,649 +$279 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 62% +$27,031
crypto 14% +$9,511
other 12% −$7,516
finance 11% +$1,517
politics 1% +$981
tech 1% +$464
sports 0% +$14
weather 0% +$14
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $43 19m
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $33 38m
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $33 38m
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $9 43m
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $63 45m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $115 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $20 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $184 2h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $44 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $12 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $23 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $16 6h
Kurds declare independence from Iran? BUY No 98¢ $7 7h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY No 92¢ $138 7h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY No 94¢ $424 9h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 10h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 10h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $481 10h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $230 10h
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 10h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $10 11h
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $1 11h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $197 11h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $28 11h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $115 11h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $28 11h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $106 11h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL No 87¢ $1 11h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL No 99¢ $99 12h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL No 87¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -5.2% -14.2% 66% 23% -20.3%
≤30d 179 +53.5% +38.9% 72% 36% +3.0%
≤90d 179 +53.5% +38.9% 72% 36% +3.0%
all 179 +53.5% +38.9% 72% 36% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover160.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.9% 36% +3.0%
10% +25.6% 28% -6.9%
15% ← realistic here +13.4% 23% -15.9%
20% +2.3% 20% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188,196.66 · official $188,198.26 (match) · 3500 history records