Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9D 0x9d74…6ac4 crypto 199 markets active 4h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-7%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%100W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$29
sports 12% −$7
other 9% −$6
finance 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -6.3% -15.2% 68% 59% -13.8%
≤30d 90 -13.0% -21.3% 62% 54% -18.2%
≤90d 182 -12.6% -21.0% 55% 49% -19.9%
all 182 -12.6% -21.0% 55% 49% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 49% -19.9%
10% -28.5% 34% -27.6%
15% -35.4% 22% -34.6%
20% -41.8% 16% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses100 / 82
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)182 / 199
History coverage86d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 91¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 +$1 +56%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$1 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +30%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$2 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $2 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $2 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a BUY 10¢ $2 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $2 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $1 24h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $1 24h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 97¢ $2 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $2 25h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $2 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Wi BUY 17¢ $4 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $4 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $4 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $4 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $2 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2 2d
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 2d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.31 · official $22.73 · 443 history records