Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9d76…196f other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$339 (+13%) realized +$309 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%20W / 44L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days+$6
14 days+$268
30 days+$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$564
sports 22% −$100
world 4% −$115
crypto 2% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +23.3% +11.5% 30% 30% -9.3%
≤30d 64 +25.0% +13.1% 31% 31% +0.2%
≤90d 64 +25.0% +13.1% 31% 31% +0.2%
all 64 +25.0% +13.1% 31% 31% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 31% +0.2%
10% +2.3% 31% -9.4%
15% -7.6% 31% -18.1%
20% -16.7% 28% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$28 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$309
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses20 / 44
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions12
Markets (closed)64 / 76
History coverage8d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 80¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 52¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+83%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+65%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+30%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$66 +1288%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$131 +1275%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$40 +784%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $86 +$41 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $117 −$115 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $212 −$210 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 19h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $56 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 19h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 19h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 24h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 32h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 42h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.52 · official $204.52 (match) · 116 history records