Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d7a…0f9d politics 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$22
14 days−$31
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$15
other 28% −$16
sports 18% −$11
finance 6% −$6
crypto 5% +$1
economics 5% −$5
culture 5% −$7
world 3% −$2
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 58 -0.8% -10.2% 3% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 114 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 134 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 114
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage103d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $149 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 20 $61 −$3 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 19 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $53 −$1 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $288 −$3 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $218 −$3 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $249 −$4 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $56 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $48 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $110 −$3 -3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $69 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 10 $19 $0 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $107 −$1 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $107 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 05 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $113 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $112 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $36 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $36 7h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $7 8h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 16h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 93¢ $58 16h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $61 24h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $48 24h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $49 31h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $52 32h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $52 39h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 39h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 47h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $57 2d
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $59 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $52 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $53 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $20 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $57 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $35 4d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.41 · official $57.41 (match) · 504 history records