Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9d7b…b1a5 politics 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%16W / 138L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$19
politics 39% −$20
sports 9% +$94
crypto 5% −$3
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 154 +2.6% -7.1% 10% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 7% -9.4%
10% -16.0% 6% -18.1%
15% -24.1% 5% -26.0%
20% -31.6% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×15.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses16 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage133d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $250 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $283 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $258 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $227 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $286 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $249 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $250 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $266 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $250 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $256 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $263 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $459 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 13 $436 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $242 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $228 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $214 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $227 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $219 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $230 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $271 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $297 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $257 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $298 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 29 $266 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $274 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $254 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $212 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 24 $241 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $31 4h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 7h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 9h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 16d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 16d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 22d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 22d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 22d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $258 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $258 26d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 26d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 26d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $216 27d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $216 27d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 28d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 28d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 29d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $286 29d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $249 29d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $249 30d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $250 30d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $250 31d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $227 32d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $227 32d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $234 32d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $234 33d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $266 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.99 · official $33.99 (match) · 460 history records