trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | No | 73¢ | 80¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+9%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 78¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 61¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-10%) |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 61¢ | 51¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-17%) |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2? | No | 68¢ | 52¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-24%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET | Up | 62¢ | 44¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-28%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 55¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-17%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET | Jun 14 | $53 | −$20 | -38% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET | Jun 14 | $36 | +$21 | +58% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET | Jun 14 | $79 | −$6 | -7% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET | Jun 14 | $25 | +$5 | +19% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | Jun 14 | $26 | +$10 | +41% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET | Jun 14 | $15 | +$3 | +17% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | Jun 14 | $4 | +$3 | +65% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | Jun 14 | $31 | −$22 | -71% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | +$1 | +11% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 15 | -33.7% | -40.0% | 40% | 40% | -20.5% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -33.7% | -40.0% | 40% | 40% | -20.5% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -33.7% | -40.0% | 40% | 40% | -20.5% |
| all | 15 | -33.7% | -40.0% | 40% | 40% | -20.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -40.0% | 40% | -20.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -45.7% | 20% | -28.1% |
| 15% | -51.0% | 20% | -35.1% |
| 20% | -55.8% | 13% | -41.4% |