Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d7d…9e2e politics 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$791 (-1%) realized −$790 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate20%25W / 101L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$939per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$14
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$63
other 33% +$70
sports 14% −$822
world 3% −$3
culture 3% −$4
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -17.0% -24.9% 8% 0% -11.2%
all 126 -2.7% -12.0% 20% 8% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 8% -10.2%
10% -20.4% 8% -18.8%
15% -28.1% 6% -26.6%
20% -35.1% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,410) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$15 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$1,192
Realized−$790
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses25 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage146d
Avg bet$939
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $784 $783 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $409 $409 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 14 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,811 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,160 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,978 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,514 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,875 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,438 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $677 +$1 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $829 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,593 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 19 $590 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 08 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,227 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,162 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,672 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,354 −$3 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,579 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $277 +$1 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 02 $374 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 02 $422 +$1 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $2,278 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $3,928 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $3,187 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,233 −$4 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,386 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,357 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,371 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,453 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,357 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $3,135 −$5 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,106 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $176 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $409 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $390 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $391 3h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 3h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $784 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $1,005 5d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,007 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,139 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,141 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,247 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,249 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,169 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,171 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,203 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,205 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,131 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,132 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,158 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,160 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $519 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $520 14d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $554 16d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $555 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,173 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,174 17d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $989 17d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $991 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,595 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,598 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,192.02 · official $1,192.02 (match) · 382 history records