Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d7f…a66e crypto 83 markets active 1d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$252 (-27%) realized −$253 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%25W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$54
sports 27% −$105
other 26% −$36
world 8% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -16.3% -24.3% 39% 36% -41.6%
≤30d 64 -16.3% -24.3% 39% 36% -41.6%
≤90d 64 -16.3% -24.3% 39% 36% -41.6%
all 64 -16.3% -24.3% 39% 36% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 36% -41.6%
10% -31.5% 33% -47.2%
15% -38.2% 28% -52.3%
20% -44.2% 28% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$253
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses25 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)64 / 83
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 21¢ 27¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $10 +$28 +276%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$6 +109%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$7 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 25h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 34h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 40¢ $5 35h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 33¢ $5 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 5¢ $5 36h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 14¢ $5 36h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 24¢ $10 36h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 45h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 46h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 26¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 62¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 37¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 37¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.15 · official $46.15 (match) · 138 history records