Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d83…8869 other 230 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 218L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$39
sports 21% −$19
politics 9% −$3
economics 6% −$4
culture 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 167 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 230 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)230 / 230
History coverage137d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 230 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $280 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 27 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $202 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 26 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $112 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 26 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $108 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 26 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $323 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $110 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 25 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $115 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 24 $374 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $364 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 24 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $415 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 23 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $302 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $622 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $271 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $223 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $256 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $376 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $440 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $428 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 20m
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 3h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 10h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 12h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 13h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 15h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 16h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 18h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 19h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 21h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 29h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 31h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 31h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 32h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $53 35h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $53 37h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 38h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $53 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 42h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 43h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $53 45h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $53 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $54 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1359 history records