Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9D 0x9d88…d97f other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$511
7 days+$40
14 days+$408
30 days+$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$487
sports 16% +$23
crypto 7% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -31.5% -38.0% 29% 25% -6.8%
≤30d 28 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 36% +14.4%
≤90d 28 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 36% +14.4%
all 28 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 36% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 36% +14.4%
10% -16.1% 36% +3.5%
15% -24.2% 32% -6.5%
20% -31.7% 25% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$46 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage10d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $57 −$55 -96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $112 +$472 +422%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$166 +277%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 +$130 +126%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $53 +$21 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $81 +$23 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$7 +42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 +$146 +283%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$112 +220%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$55 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$55 +268%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes $52 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $583 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $60 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 52¢ $226 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $60 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $74 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 40¢ $105 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $52 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $103 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $102 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 46h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $16 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $52 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 7d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes $11 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records