Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9D 0x9d8a…1f2e crypto 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+3%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%98W / 6L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$4
other 21% +$2
politics 8% $0
tech 4% +$9
culture 4% $0
world 4% +$51
weather 3% $0
sports 1% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 78 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 104 +0.3% -9.2% 94% 2% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -6.7%
10% -17.9% 2% -15.7%
15% -25.8% 2% -23.8%
20% -33.1% 2% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×20.41 per $1 lost it wins $20.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses98 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage574d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will David Thelen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 21 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tim Skelton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? May 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Latvia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026? May 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and May 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026? May 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish P May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec May 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 4? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on May 3? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 3? May 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 1? May 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 15h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 23h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $18 39h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 20d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $29 21d
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY No 100¢ $11 23d
Will David Thelen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY No 100¢ $11 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 25d
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 26d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 26d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $15 27d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 28d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY Yes 100¢ $11 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $18 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $18 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $11 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $17 35d
Will Tim Skelton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? BUY No 100¢ $20 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.53 · official $58.53 (match) · 218 history records